Forecasting is one of those things everyone means to do, but it ends up in the “too hard” basket until something breaks.
The irony? A decent forecast would’ve helped you avoid the problem in the first place.
Here are five forecasting mistakes we see all the time in NZ small businesses, and how to sidestep them.
- Getting overly optimistic
Optimism is great for morale, not for forecasting.
Basing your plan on best-case scenarios means you’ll miss red flags early. Start with conservative estimates, then add stretch goals on top.
- Forgetting about seasonality
Most Kiwi businesses have quiet and busy seasons, especially trades, retail, and tourism.
Don’t spread your revenue evenly across the year. Build in realistic peaks and dips so you can manage staffing and cashflow accordingly.
- Ignoring the “what ifs”
A good forecast doesn’t predict the future, it prepares you for it.
Always model at least three scenarios: best case, expected case, and worst case. If you can survive the worst one, you’re in good shape.
- Leaving out hidden costs
From compliance fees and ACC levies to gear maintenance and insurance renewals,unexpected costs are what wreck forecasts.
Keep a running list of “annual but easy to forget” expenses and spread them through your forecast.
- Treating it as a one-off
A forecast isn’t something you do once a year and file away.
Review it monthly, compare it to actuals, and update assumptions as you go. That’s where the insights live.
At TBA, we work with Kiwi business owners to turn forecasting from guesswork into decision-making power.
We’ll help you understand your numbers, plan ahead, and sleep better knowing what’s coming down the track.
👉 Need a hand building a rolling forecast? Book a chat and we’ll help you map the next 12 months with confidence.
